"低碳-创新"双试点政策的邻地效应及其机制OACHSSCD

Focusing on China's low carbon and innovation dual pilot policy and using panel data from 279 prefecture level cities spanning from 2006 to 2023 to build a spatial difference-in-differences model and a geographic distance decay weight matrix,this study systematically examines the policy's neighboring spillover effects,the spatial boundary of such effects,and the role of locational structure in shaping the underlying mechanisms.The results show that(1)the dual pilot policy not only significantly promotes low carbon transition within pilot cities,but also generates substantial spillover effects on surrounding non-pilot cities through channels such as green technology diffusion,resource linkage,and institutional demonstration,and these effects are not constrained by administrative boundaries;(2)the spillover effects do not expand in a linear and spatially uniform manner,but instead display clear distance decay and structural differentiation.Specifically,the policy induces race to the top dynamics in neighboring core adjacent cities by strengthening green innovation and regulatory stringency,whereas in neighboring peripheral cities,resource and institutional bottlenecks lead to adverse transmission,triggering race to the bottom dynamics and the outflow of green factors,thereby producing negative neighboring effects;(3)the policy effects are heterogeneous across regions,with significantly positive neighboring effects in eastern and central China,but insignificant effects in western and northeastern China.The study proposes policy implications along four dimensions,namely differentiated policy provision,reconstruction of performance evaluation systems,optimization of factor circulation corridors,and cross jurisdictional governance mechanisms,to promote an upgrade in the green governance paradigm from localized pilots to collaborative co-governance.