结直肠息肉切除术后患者发生低血糖的风险预测模型建立与验证OA

Objective:To construct and validate a risk prediction model for hypoglycemia in patients after colorectal polyp resection.Method:A total of 400 patients who underwent colorectal polyp resection and were admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology,Guangzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine from June 2024 to April 2025 were prospectively selected as the research subjects.The results were as follows:all patients were divided into the training set(n=300)and the validation set(n=100)in a ratio of 3:1.Whether hypoglycemia occurred in the patients after surgery was investigated.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed on the patients in the training set to determine the influencing factors of hypoglycemia.A risk prediction model was constructed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis.And the validation set was applied to verify the prediction performance of the prediction model.Result:The analysis and comparison of the incidence of hypoglycemia between the training set and the validation set showed no statistical significance(P>0.05).Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,sleep disorders,preoperative dietary prohibition time and preoperative fluid replacement were influencing factors for hypoglycemia in patients(P<0.05).The prediction model In(P/1-P)=-13.115+0.532×age+0.502×presence of sleep disorder+0.452×preoperative dietary prohibition time-0.348×preoperative fluid replacement was conducted.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to examine the model(fit,x2=6.228,P=0.075).The AUC of the hypoglycemic occurrence prediction model obtained was 0.842(95%CI:0.783~0.901),and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.22%and 88.65%,respectively.The external validation results showed that the AUC of the prediction model was 0.813(95%CI:0.738~0.879),with sensitivity and specificity of 79.42%and 83.87%respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to test the model fit(x2=5.063,P=0.149).Conclusion:The risk prediction model for hypoglycemia in patients after colorectal polyp resection constructed has an excellent predictive effect.It can identify patients at high risk of hypoglycemia after colorectal polyp resection and provide targeted intervention measures in a timely manner.