景气指数理论、方法及应用研究进展OA

To review the research progress related to the prosperity index,a literature review methodology was adopted.Following the logical thread of"theoretical foundation → compilation methodology → application fields",this study systematically reviews the research evolution of the prosperity index,scholarly achievements and developing trends in this field based on a synthesis of the research trajectory of the prosperity index.The study results showed that:1)The prosperity index possesses both economic and statistical attributes,involving the theories of economic cycles,statistical monitoring and behavioral economics.It has three important characteristics including forward-looking,comprehensiveness and intuitiveness,and performs five core functions including economic status measurement,trend prediction,early warning,policy evaluation and micro-decision guidance.A multi-dimensional classification system with clear hierarchy and rigorous logic can be constructed in accordance with the principles of coverage scope,compilation logic,data sources and technical application.2)The key to the compilation methodology of the prosperity index lies in identifying and screening leading,coincident and lagging indicators in economic cycles.Through data standardization,weight assignment,statistical synthesis,and verification and revision,these indicators are integrated into a comprehensive prosperity index that characterizes the operation status and development trend of specific fields.This index can capture cyclical inflection points,predict development trends,and provide data support for decision-making.3)The compilation methodologies of prosperity indices mainly include the composite index method,diffusion index method,early-warning index method,survey index method and machine learning method,showing an evolutionary trend of expanding from linear methods to nonlinear methods,from single-source data to multi-source data fusion,and from manual screening to intelligent algorithms.4)The prosperity index has demonstrated significant practical effectiveness and played a substantial role in key fields such as industrial economic monitoring,regional coordinated development,cross-industry resource allocation and policy effect evaluation.Each type of method has its own applicable scenarios,advantages and limitations,and the complementary application of multiple methods to meet different monitoring needs has enhanced the scientificity and practicality of prosperity analysis.In conclusion,this study is expected to facilitate the practical application of the prosperity index in the field of agricultural and forestry economics.