我国水库大坝风险管理与标准应用研究OA

Reservoir dam risk standard and risk acceptability determination are important bases for risk management.This paper comprehensively considers three aspects including standard rigor,risk probability accuracy and risk level difference,and explores the risk acceptability determination based on existing risk standards.Firstly,risk standards at home and abroad are compared to explore the strictness of our standards.Secondly,the application of the reliability method in calculating the risk probability is investigated.Then,the difference between risk level and acceptability are discussed.Finally,the feasibility and applicability of this paper are verified by combining with the risk assessment process of a certain gravity dam.The results show that the gravity dam has a reliability index β=4.42,an annualized probability of failure F=2.5×10-8,and a loss of life N=535.The risk level under Chinese standard is classified as"risk that should be reduced as far as possible",while it is an"acceptable risk"under foreign standards,which indicates the strictness of Chinese standard.The risk level is general risk,which combined with the acceptability determination indicates that the risk level of the gravity dam is within the tolerable range,and it is necessary to strengthen the risk monitoring and take appropriate safety measures to reduce the risk.The research content of this paper can provide reference for the risk management of reservoir dams in China.