皖南地区急性有机磷农药中毒患者预后预测的Nomogram模型研究OA

AIM:To establish a model capable of predicting the prognosis of patients with acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning to more ac-curately forecast their prognosis and risk of mortali-ty.METHODS:A total of 75 patients with organophosphorus poisoning who received treat-ment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical University(Yijishan Hospital)from January 2022 to December 2024 were included in the study.Single-factor Cox analysis and t test/Chi-square test were used to identify characteristics influencing pa-tient prognosis(P<0.05),followed by LASSO Cox analysis to construct a prognosis prediction score(Score),which was validated.The Score and statisti-cally significant characteristics were then used to establish a nomogram model.RESULTS:Through univariate Cox analysis,t test/Chi-square test and LASSO Cox analysis,a prognostic prediction score was established:Score=0.075 2×age(Age)+0.012 0×creatinine(CRE)-0.000 3×cholinesterase(CHE).The AUC of the Score for organophosphorus pesti-cide poisoning patients was 0.917.A Nomogram model was further constructed to predict patient prognosis,with an AUC of 0.924 and a C-index of 0.886,demonstrating good discriminatory and cali-bration performance.CONCLUSION:Considering the significant variability in prognosis among pa-tients with acute organophosphorus pesticide poi-soning,establishing and validating a high-perfor-mance Nomogram model can provide individu-alised prognosis prediction and risk assessment for patients,and further guide clinical treatment deci-sions.