基于PSR模型的陕西省商洛市布鲁氏菌病传入风险量化分析OA

In order to scientifically assess the entry risk of brucellosis in Shangluo City,and maintain its status as the first free zone without vaccination against bovine and ovine brucellosis across the country,a quantitative assessment system of"entry pressure×local vulnerability"was constructed based on PSR(pressure-status-response)model.The entry risk of the disease in all counties and districts in the city was calculated and ranked using expert weight assignment and standardization processing based on livestock data collected in 2024 and the geographical features of the regions.The results showed that,based on current control measures and conditions of sheep movement,the entry risk was the highest in Luonan County within one year,with a risk value of 0.445,followed by Zhen'an County and Shanyang County,with risk values of 0.427 and 0.386,respectively,medium in Shangzhou District,Danfeng County and Shangnan County,with risk values ranging from 0.2 to 0.3,and lowest in Zhashui County.Areas at high risk of brucellosis in the city were mainly concentrated in counties and districts bordering other provinces,with active livestock trading and intensive farming.It was investigated that the entry risk of brucellosis indicated a spatial pattern of exogenous-driven and endogenous-amplified transmission,and was mainly from the northwest(entering Shangzhou District and Luonan County via Lantian County,Shaanxi Province)and the northeast(entering Danfeng County and Shangnan County via Lushi County,Henan Province).To this end,recommendations were proposed,including improving quarantine and prevention via distribution of pathways,promoting large-scale farming and biosecurity prevention models,and increasing awareness campaigns on health for key populations,aiming to provide a scientific reference for targeted prevention and control of potential introduction of brucellosis across the city and the maintenance of the free status without vaccination.