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人口老龄化对劳动参与率的影响研究OA

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Labor Participation Rate

中文摘要英文摘要

改革开放至今,丰富的劳动力资源为中国经济增长提供了重要动力.近年来,中国人口老龄化进程持续加快,新疆也逐渐呈现出人口老龄化的趋势.文章基于2000-2020年新疆人口老龄化与劳动参与率的时间序列数据,运用多元线性回归模型与调节效应模型,系统分析人口老龄化对劳动参与率的影响.OLS回归与调节效应检验结果表明:人口老龄化对劳动参与率具有显著的抑制效应,少子化将加剧这一效应;人口流动强化了人口老龄化对劳动参与率的负面影响;提高教育水平与发展第三产业能有效缓解人口老龄化带来的冲击.文章据此提出政策建议:创新区域教育合作与就业培训,提升劳动供给质量;推动产业升级,筑牢经济基础;构建政策体系引导人口流动与人才留存;加强教育、医疗等公共服务保障.

Since the reform and opening up,abundant labor resources have provided an important driving force for China's economic growth.In recent years,China's population aging process has continued to accelerate,and Xinjiang has also shown population aging.Based on the time series data of population aging and labor participation rate in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020,this paper systematically analyzes the impact of population aging on labor participation rate by using multiple linear regression model and moderating effect model.The results of OLS regression and adjustment effect test show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on labor participation rate,and low birth rate will aggravate this effect.Population mobility strengthens the negative impact of population aging on labor participation rate;The improvement of education level and the development of tertiary industry can effectively alleviate the impact of population aging.Based on this,policy recommendations are put forward:innovating regional education cooperation and employment training to improve the quality of labor supply;promote industrial upgrading and build a solid economic foundation;build a policy system to guide population mobility and talent retention;strengthen public services such as education and medical care.

李智雯

新疆师范大学 商学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017||新疆师范大学 丝绸之路经济带核心区产业高质量发展研究中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830017

管理科学

人口老龄化劳动力供给劳动参与率

Population agingLabor supplyLabor participation rate

《新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (3)

57-65,9

新疆师范大学智库招标课题(ZK202318C).

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