首页|期刊导航|沙漠与绿洲气象|PM2.5和PM10对银川市呼吸系统疾病影响分析

PM2.5和PM10对银川市呼吸系统疾病影响分析OA

Impact of PM2.5 and PM10 on Respiratory Diseases in Yinchuan City

中文摘要英文摘要

利用2015-2022年银川市逐日气象观测、大气污染物浓度和呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数资料,基于广义相加模型(GAM)和分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),以银川市PM2.5和PM10浓度作为主要影响因子,选取NO2、SO2、CO、风速、平均气温和最高气温作为协变量因子,定量评价银川市PM2.5和PM10浓度对呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数影响的滞后及累积效应.结果表明:(1)2015-2022年呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊人数日变化呈波动上升趋势,季节变化显著,冬、春季达到峰值.(2)2015-2022年PM2.5和PM10浓度均呈微弱下降趋势,PM2.5轻度污染及以上等级占比在10%~40%,均出现在春、冬季,PM10轻度污染及以上等级占比10%~30%.(3)PM2.5和PM10浓度对呼吸疾病门诊就诊人数影响具有滞后性和累积效应.在发病当天,呼吸系统发病危险度随着PM10浓度的升高而升高,且在滞后2 d内,呼吸系统疾病风险仍维持相对危险度RR>1.(4)对不同性别的人群,PM2.5和PM10浓度与呼吸系统就诊人数的暴露—反应关系总体差异较小;对不同年龄段,其敏感性和滞后效应不同,老年人和儿童对颗粒物浓度的敏感性更强.建议医院等相关部门在出现PM2.5和PM10浓度较高的污染后对老年人和儿童进行不同程度的健康干预.

Using daily meteorological data,atmospheric pollutant concentrations,and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Yinchuan City from 2015 to 2022,this study quantitatively assessed the lagged and cumulative effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on respiratory outpatient visits.A Generalized Additive Model(GAM)and the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM)were employed,with PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Yinchuan City as the primary influencing factors,while NO2,SO2,CO,wind speed,mean temperature,and maximum temperature as covariate factors.The results indicate that:(1)From 2015 to 2022,the daily number of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases showed a fluctuating upward trend with significant seasonal variations,peaking in winter and spring.(2)Both PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations exhibited a slight downward trend from 2015 to 2022.The proportion of days with PM2.5 concentrations reaching light pollution levels and above ranged from 10%to 40%,mainly occurring in spring and winter,while that for PM10 ranged between 10%and 30%.(3)Exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 exerted significant lagged and cumulative effects on respiratory disease visits.On the day of onset,the risk of respiratory disease increased with rising PM10 concentrations,and remained elevated(Relative Risk>1)for up to 2 lag days.(4)The exposure-response relationships between PM2.5/PM10 concentrations and the number of respiratory outpatient visits were generally similar across genders.For different age groups,sensitivity and lag effects varied:the elderly and children were more sensitive to particulate matter concentrations.Therefore,it is recommended that relevant departments,such as hospitals,implement appropriate health interventions for elderly and child populations following episodes of high PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations.

李晓玥;肖云清;赵腾;程瑶;田凤

中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏 银川 750002||银川市气象局,宁夏 银川 750002中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏 银川 750002||银川市气象局,宁夏 银川 750002中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏 银川 750002||银川市气象局,宁夏 银川 750002中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏 银川 750002||银川市气象局,宁夏 银川 750002中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏 银川 750002||银川市气象局,宁夏 银川 750002

资源环境

大气颗粒物呼吸系统疾病广义相加模型滞后及累积效应

atmospheric particulate matterrespiratory diseasesGeneralized Additive Model(GAM)lagged and cumulative effects

《沙漠与绿洲气象》 2026 (2)

63-71,9

银川市科技计划项目青年科技人才培养(基础研究引导)专项(2025RC38)

10.12057/j.issn.2097-6801.2412.11109

评论