基于多源数据模态分解算法的气象短时预测算法OA
Meteorological Short-term Prediction Algorithm Based on Multi-source Data Mode Decomposition Algorithm
气象现象受到多种物理过程的影响,这些过程之间相互作用复杂,使得气象数据表现出非线性、非平稳的特性,难以捕获其中的高频瞬时变化与低频周期性变化,导致气象短时预测精度较低.为此,提出一个基于多源数据模态分解算法的气象短时预测算法.利用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解对多源气象时序数据进行一次分解,确定高频信号和低频信号;利用变分模态分解对最复杂的高频信号进行二次分解,生成若干本征模态函数分量,从而获取高频瞬时变化与低频周期性变化;基于得到的本征模态函数分量,构建深度确定性循环跳跃状态网络,叠加每个网络的预测结果,实现气象短时精准预测.实验结果表明,所提出的算法的Theil不平等系数低、协议索引高、泰勒图表现优异,气象短时预测结果精准.
Meteorological phenomena are affected by a variety of physical processes,and the interaction between these processes is complex,which makes the meteorological data show nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics.It is difficult to capture the high-frequency instantaneous changes and low-frequency periodic changes,resulting in the low accuracy of meteorological short-term prediction.Therefore,a meteorological short-term prediction algorithm based on multi-source data mode decomposition algorithm is proposed.The complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise is used to decompose the multi-source meteorological time series data once to determine the high-frequency signal and low-frequency signal.The most complex high-frequency signal is decomposed twice by using variational mode decomposition to generate several eigenmode func-tion components,so as to obtain the high-frequency instantaneous changes and low-frequency periodic changes.The deep deter-ministic cyclic jump state network is constructed based on the obtained eigenmode function components,and the prediction re-sults of each network are superimposed to achieve short-term accurate prediction of meteorological.The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has low Theil inequality coefficient,high protocol index,good performance of Taylor chart,and accurate meteorological short-term prediction results.
韩宏亮;李明玥;林嘉楠;乔梁
黑龙江省气象数据中心(黑龙江省气象探测中心、黑龙江省气象档案馆),黑龙江,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气候中心(黑龙江省气候变化中心),黑龙江,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象数据中心(黑龙江省气象探测中心、黑龙江省气象档案馆),黑龙江,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象数据中心(黑龙江省气象探测中心、黑龙江省气象档案馆),黑龙江,哈尔滨 150030
信息技术与安全科学
多源数据卡尔曼滤波经验模态分解气象短时预测
multi-source dataKalman filteringempirical mode decompositionmeteorological short-term prediction
《微型电脑应用》 2026 (3)
240-243,4
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