从结构导向到总统导向:特朗普第二任期北极政策评析OACHSSCD

After Trump began his second term,the U.S.Arctic policy has shown a distinct"presidential orientation",that is,by strengthening the president's authority and streamling the decision-making process to promote the rapid formulation and implementation of the Arctic policy.For a long time,partisan games,congressional oversight,interactions among federal agencies,and the participation of interest groups have largely maintained the stability and continuity of policies,featuring a distinct"structural orientation",but political polarization has weakened this structural balance.Trump usually controls key resources through personnel adjustments and budget allocation,and resorts to executive orders to circumvent procedural reviews,simplifying the formulation of Arctic policies and pursuing short-term efficiency.At the policy practice level,energy development and unilateral security agendas have been significantly prioritized.The Arctic has been shaped as a frontier field of the"America First"strategy,and the status of scientific research and environmental governance in policy has significantly declined.This change not only weakens the consensus function of multilateral mechanisms such as the Arctic Council,but also promotes the regional governance logic to shift from rule-oriented to power politics,intensifying the uncertainty and externality risks of geopolitical competition.Meanwhile,the long-term absence of security dialogue mechanisms has led to a continuous increase in the risks of misjudgment and conflicts.Trump's expansion of presidential power during his current second term highlights the close interaction between domestic political changes in the United States and the international governance order,posing a profound challenge to peace,stability and sustainable development in the Arctic region.