考虑温度和围压效应的升尺度理论岩石力学特性预测模型及验证OA

To address key industry challenges in deep-earth engineering such as low core recovery rates,core damage during extraction,and high operational costs,this study proposes a novel upscaling theoretical framework for predicting rock me-chanical properties,incorporating the effects of temperature and confining pressure.The proposed method establishes quanti-tative relationships among mineral composition,mineral-scale mechanical properties,porosity,fracture characteristics,and macroscopic mechanical behavior.By utilizing microscale test data from readily available materials,such as drilling cuttings and borehole wall fragments,the framework enables rapid and reliable prediction of macroscopic mechanical properties in deep formations.The model is applied to two representative ultra-deep lithologies,dolomite and limestone,and its perform-ance is validated through comparison with results from core-based triaxial compression tests.The average prediction errors for elastic modulus are 3.35%for limestone and 9.30%for dolomite,while those for strength are 7.57%for limestone and 6.63%for dolomite.Compared with conventional mechanical models,the proposed approach offers two main advantages.First,it incorporates the effects of temperature and confining pressure on rock porosity,improving its applicability and pre-dictive accuracy under the high-temperature and high-pressure conditions typical of deep-earth environments.Second,it in-tegrates mineralogical and mechanical information derived from drilling cuttings and borehole fragments with fracture charac-terization from well logging data,enabling efficient and high-precision prediction of macroscopic mechanical properties of deep formations.This study provides a new framework and methodology for estimating the mechanical properties of ultra-deep formations,offering essential support for wellbore stability analysis and reservoir stimulation design.