粮食主产区耕地农业生产结构与种植结构"非粮化"时空关联性及其分区管控OACHSSCD

With the increasing emphasis on the"Big Food Concept",which promotes diversified cropping structures,exploring the interrelationships among different types of non-grain cultivated land utilization is crucial for optimizing regional agricultural planting structures and ensuring food security.Using Henan Province as a case study,this research employed land use data and statistical yearbooks from 2000 to 2023,along with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and bivariate spatial autocorrelation,to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution and correlation of non-grain cultivated land from the perspectives of agricultural production structure and planting structure.Based on these analyses,non-grain cultivated land was classified into distinct zoning types to support categorized and spatially ordered governance.The findings revealed that:(1)Temporally,the two types of non-grain utilization exhibited clearly divergent trends:non-grain utilization in the agricultural production structure showed an inverted"W"-shaped decline,while that in the planting structure displayed a"W"-shaped increase.Particularly after 2020,non-grain utilization within the agricultural production structure demonstrated a pronounced downward trend,whereas that in the planting structure maintained an upward trend.(2)Spatially,both types exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity.Specifically,non-grain utilization within the agricultural production structure displayed a distinct spatial pattern characterized by the highest in the west,and the lowest levels in the east.Conversely,non-grain utilization in the planting structure demonstrated a spatial configuration with the highest intensity in the south,and the lowest in the central region.The spatial pattern of both types of non-grain utilization was more pronounced in mountainous and hilly regions.(3)Correlation analysis indicated a complex spatial interdependence between the two types,with significant positive and negative local spatial associations.These were categorized into four clusters:High-High(H-H),High-Low(H-L),Low-Low(L-L),and Low-High(L-H).Notably,mountainous and hilly areas predominantly exhibited synergistic facilitative effects(HH clusters),while plains regions were characterized mainly by suppressive effects(HL/LH clusters).(4)By integrating the degree classification of non-grain cultivated land with bivariate spatial autocorrelation results,five functional management zones were delineated:the integrated governance zone,the integrated regulation zone,the planting structure governance zone,the agricultural production structure governance zone,the core zone of planting structure-agricultural production structure.Targeted control measures were proposed for each zone,emphasizing differentiated governance strategies based on the dominant interaction mechanisms and regional characteristics.These findings underscore that clarifying the interrelationship between non-grain trends in agricultural production structure and planting structure was essential for formulating differentiated non-grain cultivated land control policies and improving governance efficiency.