海南热带雨林国家公园生态系统服务价值及多情景模拟OACHSSCD

Exploring the differences and evolutionary trends of ecosystem service value(ESV)in national parks under various scenarios is crucial for promoting their sustainable development and guiding scientific planning.The ESV serves as a comprehensive indicator for evaluating the ecological functions and overall benefits of national parks.It quantitatively reflected the integrated contributions of ecosystems in terms of material provisioning,climate regulation,ecological support,and cultural enrichment,and had become an essential metric for assessing regional ecosystem quality,ecological stability,and human wellbeing.As national parks play a leading role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological security,understanding how their ESV evolves under different development scenarios is of great significance for achieving a balance between conservation and utilization.In this study,the equivalent factor method was combined with the System Dynamics(SD)model to simulate the four major ecosystem service subsystems of National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest:provisioned,regulated,supported,and cultural services.Furthermore,a multi-scenario simulation framework was established to analyze the future evolution of ESV in the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest.The framework projected the ESV dynamics of the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest from 2023 to 2035 under five development scenarios:natural evolution,ecological priority,economic priority,tourism development,and integrated development.The results indicated that:(1)From 2023 to 2035,the total ESV of the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest showed a continuous upward trend,suggesting a steady enhancement in the park's ecological service capacity;(2)Under the natural evolution scenario,the contributions to ESV growth in the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest were ranked as follows:supporting services＞regulating services＞cultural services＞provisioning services,highlighted the structural differences and synergistic relationships among internal ecosystem functions;(3)Among the different development scenarios,the highest ESV growth occurred under the integrated development scenario,followed by the ecological priority,economic priority,tourism development,and natural evolution scenarios.In summary,this study employs the equivalent factor method and dynamic simulation,and multi-scenario comparative analysis based on the SD model to reveal the mechanisms governing the evolution of ecosystem service functions within the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest.The findings provided a robust theoretical foundation and modeling support for optimizing spatial planning,formulating ecological conservation strategies,and improving policy design.These contributions may help to advance the long-term sustainable management of the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest,thereby enhancing the value of its ecosystem services at both regional and national levels.