中国绿电驱动电解水制氢扩张情景下水土资源压力与空间格局评估OACHSSCD

China's ambition to scale up electrolytic green hydrogen production is a central pillar of its dual carbon strategy,yet its implementation is increasingly constrained by limited water and land resources.A systematic evaluation of the resource implications of green hydrogen deployment is therefore urgently required.This study constructs a province level demand dataset for 2030 by quantifying the green hydrogen coupling potential of six key industrial products,and assesses the additional pressures imposed on water and land resources under four representative deployment scenarios.These scenarios reflect different combinations of power supply modes and electrolysis technologies,capturing critical technological and infrastructural uncertainties.The results indicate substantial increases in resource demand relative to the baseline scenario.At the national level,water consumption associated with green hydrogen deployment may increase by up to eight times,while land occupation may expand by more than twenty-seven times,with pronounced variation across scenarios.From a product specific perspective,polyester fiber exhibits the highest green hydrogen coupling potential but also faces the most severe resource constraints.Its additional water and land demands reach 49.97 kg/kg and 6.34 m2 a/kg,respectively,nearly fifteen times those associated with crude oil processing.In contrast,methanol and ammonia impose comparatively modest water and land pressures,indicating a more favorable balance between decarbonization potential and resource efficiency.From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,off-grid deployment amplifies land stress in already land-scarce eastern provinces,with Jiangsu and Guangdong contributing 26.39％and 16.27％of the national incremental land use burden,respectively;whereas grid-connected deployment exacerbates water stress in already water-scarce northwestern provinces,where Shaanxi and Xinjiang account for 5.27％and 3.51％of the national incremental water consumption,respectively,highlighting the profound tensions between China's hydrogen transition strategy and the sustainable use of regional water and land resources under its specific resource endowments.Building on these findings,a set of coordinated policies and multi-scale governance measures is proposed to balance China's hydrogen transition ambitions with the constraints of water and land resource sustainability.Building on this,we propose a multi-scale policy framework spanning system,industrial,and regional levels to coordinate China's hydrogen transition with the sustainable use of water and land resources.The framework establishes hard system-wide resource constraints and promotes resource circularity to safeguard development boundaries,deploys targeted economic instruments to steer tiered coupling of green hydrogen across industrial processes,and accounting for regional heterogeneity in resource endowments,advances grid-connected,off-grid,and hybrid deployment pathways.Together,these measures aim to decouple the large-scale expansion of green hydrogen from escalating pressures on water and land resources.