首页|期刊导航|水利经济|超大城市台风-暴雨灾害韧性治理的政策逻辑解构:以上海市为例

超大城市台风-暴雨灾害韧性治理的政策逻辑解构:以上海市为例OACHSSCD

Deconstructing the policy logic of resilience governance for typhoon-rainstorm disasters in megacities:a case study of Shanghai

中文摘要英文摘要

优化超大城市灾害韧性治理体系,是应对当下日益严峻的台风-暴雨灾害风险的关键举措.以上海市为例,构建政策工具-主题-目标三维分析框架,对 23 份政策文本进行系统编码和多维度分析,剖析现行台风-暴雨灾害韧性治理政策的结构特征与资源配置逻辑.结果表明:上海市形成了以政府主导、工程优先和预防为主的政策模式,表现为供给型工具占主导、韧性建设聚焦基础设施与管理制度领域、政策注意力向灾前阶段倾斜,该政策模式适配超大城市治理需求,在常规灾害下具备较强抗冲击水平.从系统韧性治理的全周期进阶要求来看,该政策模式仍存在阶段性优化空间:工具维度尚存政府主导路径依赖,主题维度社会与经济软韧性精细化建设仍有深化空间,过程维度在灾后恢复、经验转化效率与常态化改进机制仍需完善.基于此,提出应优化政策工具组合、平衡韧性建设结构、强化全周期治理的对策建议.

Optimizing the disaster resilience governance system of megacities is a key measure to address the increasingly severe risk of typhoon and rainstorm disasters at present.Taking Shanghai as a case study,this paper constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework of policy tools-themes-objectives,conducts systematic coding and multi-dimensional analysis of 23 policy texts,and analyzes the structural characteristics and resource allocation logic of the current resilience governance policies for typhoon and rainstorm disasters.The study finds that Shanghai has formed a policy model featuring government leadership,engineering priority and prevention orientation,which is reflected in the dominance of supply-side tools,the focus of resilience construction on infrastructure and management systems,and the inclination of policy attention to the pre-disaster stage.This model adapts to the governance needs of megacities and possesses strong shock resistance under conventional disasters.From the perspective of the advanced requirements of whole-cycle systematic resilience governance,the model still has room for phased optimization:there is a path dependence on government leadership in the tool dimension,the refined construction of social and economic soft resilience still has room for deepening in the theme dimension,and the post-disaster recovery,experience transformation efficiency and regular improvement mechanism still need to be improved in the process dimension.Based on these findings,it is proposed to optimize the combination of policy tools,balance the structure of resilience construction,and strengthen full-cycle governance.

张鑫;高燕;王军;张玥

河海大学公共管理学院河海大学公共管理学院上海市海洋管理事务中心河海大学商学院

台风-暴雨灾害超大城市风险保障韧性治理政策分析上海市

typhoon-rainstorm disastersmegacityrisk protectionresilience governancepolicy analysisShanghai

《水利经济》 2026 (2)

83-93,11

国家自然科学基金面上项目(72374064)

10.3880/j.issn.1003-9511.2026.02.009

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