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基于机器学习模型的河道含沙量预测OA

Prediction of River Sediment Concentration Based on Machine Learning Models

中文摘要英文摘要

准确预测河流含沙量对取水灌溉、河流通航和水库排沙等具有重要的作用.为此,采用轻量级结构且具有并行性能的 WCNN机器学习模型开展河道含沙量预测,将其应用于中国赣江下游南昌河段外洲水文站.结果显示,对 2017 年~2018 年外洲站的含沙量预测,WCNN模型的预测性能均优于目前常用的循环神经网络 LSTM 和 GRU 模型,特别对提前 1 d的含沙量预测,RMSE 和 MAE 值分别为 0.003 1 kg/m3 和 0.002 0 kg/m3,NSE 和 R 值分别为0.887 2 和 0.946 1,表明该模型预测精度较高.此外,WCNN模型的参数数量比 LSTM 和 GRU模型分别减少 54.8%和 40.2%,模型训练时间减少 44.3%和 27.9%.表明 WCNN模型预测效果更好且耗时更少.

Accurate prediction of sediment content in rivers plays a significant role in water intake for irrigation,river navigation and sediment discharge from reservoirs.A lightweight architecture machine learning model named WCNN(Wavelet Convolutional Neural Network)with parallel computing capabilities for river sediment concentration prediction is employed in this study,and applied to the Waizhou Hydrological Station on the Nanchang reach of the lower Ganjiang River in China.Results demonstrate that,for the sediment concentration forecasting at Waizhou Station during 2017-2018,the WCNN model outperforms the commonly used recurrent neural networks LSTM and GRU.Particularly for 1-day-ahead predictions,it achieves RMSE and MAE values of 0.003 1 kg/m3 and 0.002 0 kg/m3,with NSE and R reaching 0.887 2 and 0.946 1 respectively,indicating high predictive accuracy.Concurrently,the parameter count of the WCNN model is reduced by 54.8%and 40.2%compared to LSTM and GRU models,while training time decreased by 44.3%and 27.9%.Overall comparative analysis demonstrates that the WCNN model delivers superior prediction performance with significantly reduced computational time.

陈珺;梁晟涢;黄燕华;黄卫东;符育文;许慧

河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210024||河海大学水利部水循环与水动力系统重点实验室,江苏 南京 210024河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210024广州市南沙区水务局,广东 广州 511400长江水利委员会长江科学院河流研究所,湖北 武汉 430010长江航道规划设计研究院,湖北 武汉 430040水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029

建筑与水利

机器学习WCNN模型含沙量预测特征选择赣江

machine learningWCNN modelsediment concentration predictionfeature selectionGanjiang River

《水力发电》 2026 (5)

56-63,8

国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1700802)河南黄河河务局工程建设中心科技项目(YDFZSFH2024)

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