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2025年中国主要气候风险及气象灾害概述OA

Overview of the China climate risk and major meteorological disaster in 2025

中文摘要英文摘要

本文利用1961-2025 年中国区域2 400 余站地面气象逐日观测数据和灾情数据,采用气候年景指数、气候风险指数以及客观化气象灾害过程识别方法,对 2025 年中国主要气候风险特征及气象灾害进行系统性分析.结果表明,2025 年我国气候年景总体偏差,综合年景为 1961 年以来第二差,气候风险指数位列历史第七位,属于典型的高风险年份.各类极端天气气候事件呈多发、强发的态势.区域性暴雨过程次数偏多且局地极端性强,华北雨季与华西秋雨降水量均创历史极值,暴雨洪涝风险较高;高温过程频繁,持续时间长、影响范围广,全国平均高温日数创历史新高,高温风险指数居历史第二;干旱过程次数略高于常年,呈现显著的阶段性和区域性特征;台风生成及登陆我国的次数均偏多,秋台风活跃且致灾严重;冷空气过程频次偏多,但低温冷冻害整体偏弱.综合来看,2025 年我国气象灾害表现出突发性强、复合型交织的特点,防灾减灾面临严峻挑战.

Using daily meteorological observation data from over 2 400 surface stations in China alongside disaster data from 1961 to 2025,this study systematically analyzes the characteristics of major climate risks and meteorological disasters in China in 2025.The analysis employs the climate status index,the climate risk index,and an objective identification method for meteorological disaster processes.The results indicate that China's overall climate status in 2025 was generally poor,ranking as the second worst since 1961.The climate risk index ranked seventh historically,classifying it as a typical high-risk year.Various extreme weather and climate events exhibited high frequency and strong intensity.Regional heavy rainfall processes occurred more frequently with strong local extremeness.Precipitation during both the North China rainy season and the West China autumn rain broke historical records,leading to a high risk of severe flooding.High-temperature events were frequent,long-lasting,and widespread;the national average number of high-temperature days reached a record high,and the high-temperature risk index ranked second historically.Drought processes were slightly more frequent than normal,displaying significant phased and regional features.The number of typhoons generated and making landfall in China was above average,with autumn typhoons being particularly active and causing severe damage.While cold air processes were more frequent,overall low-temperature and freezing disasters remained relatively weak.Overall,meteorological disasters in China in 2025 were characterized by strong suddenness and compounding effects,posing severe challenges to disaster prevention and mitigation.

刘远;李莹;王雅琦;尹宜舟;王国复

国家气候中心 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081国家气候中心 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081国家气候中心 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081国家气候中心 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081国家气候中心 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081

天文与地球科学

气候年景气候风险指数区域性极端天气过程气象灾害

climate statusclimate risk indexregional extreme weather processmeteorological disaster

《气象科学》 2026 (1)

1-10,10

国家重点研发项目(2024YFF0809202)国家自然科学基金资助项目(42305180)新疆"天山英才"培养计划科技创新团队项目(2024TSYCTD0005)

10.12306/2026jms.0008

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