未来热带太平洋类厄尔尼诺型增暖加速的机制分析OA

By analyzing the simulation data of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6),it is found that under high-emissions scenario(SSP5-8.5),the"El Niño like"warming of the upper ocean in the eastern Pacific will accelerate in the future.This accelerated warming trend is mainly due to the accelerated weakening of the Walker circulation caused by the accelerated slowing down of the subtropical circulation,which weakens the easterly wind and inhibits the equatorial upwelling,resulting in the accelerated rise of the upper ocean heat content in the eastern Pacific.Although the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback mechanism is also one of the main driving mechanisms for the formation of the"El Niño like"warming spatial structure,its contribution to the accelerated warming of this spatial structure is relatively small.The results show that the dynamic response of the tropical East Pacific will form a positive feedback acceleration amplification warming effect under the strong emission scenario.