选择性注意理论下以色列预警情报失误研究OACHSSCD

[Purpose]Using selective attention theory to explore the two intelligence warning failures in Israel's response to surprise attacks in 1973 and 2023 is conducive to reflecting on and improving the cognitive ability of warning intelligence from the dual perspectives of de-cision-makers and intelligence organizations.[Method]Based on this theory,by using literature analysis and historical analysis methods,this research sorts out the logical flaws in the warning intelligence cognition of Israeli decision-makers and intelligence organizations before the two raids.[Result/Conclusion]Israeli intelligence organizations make use of their expertise,rely on monitoring the capabilities of their adversaries to identify their attack intentions.The prime ministers have focused on vivid information and subjective credibility in their understanding of the opponent's warning intelligence.When there are differences in warning intelligence analysis between both sides,deci-sion-makers tend to judge their opponents based on personal preferences,while intelligence organizations often"hit the ball to their lik-ing"and distort intelligence.Therefore,decision-makers must enhance their guidance to intelligence organizations and intelligence organi-zations should optimize their analysis,update the intelligence warning indicators of the opponent's intentions in a timely manner,and es-tablish a positive relationship between decision-makers and intelligence organizations.