不同种植年限枸杞种植系统温室气体通量的变化特征与预测OA

To investigate and predict how greenhouse gas emissions in arid zone agricultural ecosystems respond to land use change,this study examined wolfberry fields in Zhongning County,Ningxia,spanning four planting ages(0,1,5,and 10 years).it measured soil physicochemical properties and the fluxes of CO₂,N₂O,and CH₄,and developed autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)models to predict their temporal dynamics.CO₂ and N₂O fluxes increased significantly with planting age,whereas CH ₄ flux showed no significant change.Fluxes were higher in summer than in winter,indicating pronounced seasonal differences.Soil water content and pH were identified as key controls on greenhouse gas emissions.The ARIMA models performed well overall,with the highest predictive accuracy for CH ₄ flux.Forecasts suggest that,over the near term,greenhouse gas fluxes will remain relatively stable or exhibit slight increases.This study elucidated the spatiotemporal patterns and dominant controls of greenhouse gas emissions in wolfberry cultivation systems and provides a forecasting tool to support regional low-carbon agricultural management.