基于PVAR模型的长三角低碳、城市扩张与经济发展互动关系研究OA
Interactive Relationships among Low-Carbon Development,Urban Expansion and Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta Based on A PVAR Model
以2012-2023年长三角地区41个城市的面板数据为样本,通过支持度模型融合熵值、TOPSIS及灰色关联3种单一评价方法计算低碳、城市扩张与经济发展的综合评价值,经Kendall与Spearman检验,验证了组合评价结果的一致性与稳健性.进而构建PVAR模型并引入脉冲响应函数,从动态视角分析三系统的相互作用.结果表明,经济发展在短期内对低碳水平产生抑制效应,但显著推动了城市扩张;然而,城市扩张对低碳水平的影响相对有限.此外,低碳、城市扩张与经济发展三系统均表现出较强的自我强化特征.
Panel data from 41 cities in the Yangtze river delta region from 2012 to 2023 were used in this study.A support-degree model integrating three single evaluation methods-entropy weighting,TOPSIS and grey relational analysis-was applied to calculate the composite evaluation indices of low-carbon development,urban expansion and economic growth.The consistency and robustness of the combined evaluation results were verified using Kendall and Spearman tests.Subsequently,a panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model was con-structed and impulse response functions were introduced to analyze the dynamic interactions among the three systems.The results indicate that economic growth exerts a short-term inhibitory effect on low-carbon development,while significantly promoting urban expan-sion.In contrast,the impact of urban expansion on low-carbon development is relatively limited.In addition,low-carbon development,urban expansion and economic growth all exhibit strong self-reinforcing characteristics.
王萍;李小龙
东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,330013,南昌东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,330013,南昌||东华理工大学自然资源部环鄱阳湖区域矿山环境监测与治理重点实验室,330013,南昌||东华理工大学中核三维地理信息工程技术研究中心,330013,南昌
管理科学
PVAR模型支持度模型低碳城市扩张经济发展
PVAR modelsupport degree modellow-carbonurban expansioneconomic growth
《江西科学》 2026 (2)
191-199,9
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42261078).
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