电商直播提振消费的增量创造与存量替代效应研究OACHSSCD

Boosting domestic demand directly fulfills the people's growing need for a better life and serves as a key engine for building a new development paradigm centered on domestic circulation while promoting mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulation.With the advancement of digital technology,the penetration rate of digital consumption represented by E-commerce live streaming has steadily increased,exerting a significant impact on domestic demand.From the perspective of consumption channels,E-commerce live streaming may complement offline channels and traditional E-commerce channels(suggesting it drives incremental expansion)or compete with them(indicating it substitutes for existing consumption).Theoretical analysis indicates that,compared to the other two channels,E-commerce livestreaming creates new demand,expands market boundaries,and enhances conversion rates.Based on this,this paper proposes the hypothesis that E-commerce livestreaming has an incremental expansion effect on overall consumption rather than a substitution effect.This paper empirically tests this hypothesis using provincial-quarterly data from 2020 to 2024.Results from benchmark regression,robustness tests,exclusion of competing hypotheses,and instrumental variables all confirm that E-commerce livestreaming drives incremental expansion in overall consumption.Specifically,consumption growth attributable to livestreaming accounts for approximately 8.9%of household consumption growth.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that livestreaming stimulates rural consumption more significantly than urban consumption,with significant variations in consumption-boosting effects across different livestreaming categories—fresh food,exhibiting lower elasticity,showing the strongest effect.