延河流域广义水资源调控及仿真模拟OA

[Objective]This study aims to analyze the key factors affecting the regional water supply-demand balance and de-velop evidence-based management strategies,thereby providing theoretical support and practical pathways for promoting sus-tainable water use and high-quality regional development.[Methods]Based on water footprint and blue-green water frame-works,this study innovatively explored the mechanisms of water resources stress in the river basin from a holistic view of water resources.Taking the Yanhe River Basin as an example,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was employed to calculate basin-scale blue and green water volume,which was then coupled with a system dynamics model.Four future sce-narios-natural development,water-resource-focused regulation,economic-growth-driven development,and ecological-priority management-were designed to quantitatively analyze their impacts on water resources carrying capacity,thereby proposing reg-ulation strategies to enhance water resources carrying capacity.[Results]The SWAT model achieved R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)values of 0.69 and 0.61 during the calibration period,and 0.88 and 0.78 during validation,indicating good simulation accuracy.The multi-year average blue water volume was 1.408 billion m3,and the multi-year average green water volume was 3.193 billion m3,highlighting green water as the dominant component of the river basin's water resources.By 2035,agricultural,industrial,domestic,and ecological water demands in the river basin were projected to increase,with the projected blue water supply reaching only 93 million m3.Under the water-resource-focused regulation scenario,the sup-ply-demand gap was minimized,averaging 5.9 million m3.However,apple and vegetable yields deviated from the planned targets by 361 300 t and 352 700 t,respectively,and industrial output was 2.213 billion yuan lower,indicating constraints on industrial and agricultural development.Under the economic-growth-driven development scenario,the supply-demand gap was the largest,averaging-52.2 million m3,further intensifying supply-demand pressure.In contrast,the results under the ecological-priority management scenario aligned closely with the planned targets,yielding an average supply-demand gap of-12.9 million m3.[Conclusion]The ecological-priority management scenario achieves a water supply-demand ratio of 1.33,and the simulated values of subsystems are generally consistent with the long-term development goals.This scenario effectively achieves a dynamic balance among ecological protection,economic development,and water resources utilization,serving as a strategic reference for high-quality development in the Yanhe River Basin in the future.