基于MaxEnt模型金毛狗(Cibotium barometz)潜在地理分布预测OA

Cibotium barometz is endangered protected species,and its habitat is under severely threat current-ly,thus it is necessary to establish global prediction model for its potential geographical distribution to provide references for its resource protection and utilization.Based on data of 365 C.barometz effective distribution re-cords and fifteen environmental variables,C.barometz potential suitable regions were predicted at current and future(2030s,2050s,2070s and 2090s)and main environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed by Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model.Results showed that area under curve(AUC)mean of MaxEnt model reached 0.975,indicating high prediction accuracy.Precipitation of the warmest quarter,precipitation of the wettest month,degree,temperature seasonality,mean diurnal range and annual mean temperature were main environmental factors affecting C.barometz distribution with cumulative contribution rate of 94.76%.By 2090s,area of C.barometz total suitable region would decrease 95.86×104 km² under SSP126 scenario,whereas it would increase 71.11×104 and 41.09×104 km² under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios respectively.C.barometz mainly distributed in range of 90°E-150°E longitude and 10°S-30°N latitude.Under three climate scenarios,C.barometz distribution centers showed trends of moving to regions with lower latitudes from current to 2070s,and showed trends of moving to regions with higher latitudes from 2070s to 2090s.