绿氢产业链成本分析及发展路径研究OACHSSCD
The green hydrogen industry cost analysis and development path
完善绿氢产业链成本测算模型,根据绿氢的多种储运载体及运输方式,综合探讨未来绿氢产业发展路径及趋势.结论:1)各地区不同的可再生资源禀赋和技术水平使得绿氢制取成本存在区域差异,为绿氢资源在区域间流动提供了可能性.2)管道运输(20%掺氢)方式的绿氢产业链具备绝对的成本优势,以绿氨为载体的产业链存在相对的成本优势.3)在绿氢进口方面,国内外绿氢形成一定的竞争关系;在绿氢出口方面,中国绿氢相对更具竞争力,以绿氨和绿色甲醇为载体的路径具有显著的成本优势.建议国家加大绿氢产业投资,提升产能供给;完善氢能基础设施,推动产业链协同;共同制定国际绿氢标准,推动碳减排价值变现;加强国际氢能资源合作,保障供应链安全;强化国际技术合作,提升产业竞争力.
This paper refines a cost estimation model for the green hydrogen industry chain and comprehensively discusses the future development pathways and trends of the green hydrogen industry based on various carriers and transportation modes for green hydrogen storage and delivery.The main conclusions include that the different cost of green hydrogen production across regions due to regional differences in renewable resource endowments and technological levels enables the interregional flow of green hydrogen resources,the green hydrogen industry chain based on pipeline transportation(with 20%hydrogen blending)holds an absolute cost advantage and the chain using green ammonia as a carrier exhibits a relative cost advantage,domestic and foreign green hydrogen compete with each other to a certain extent for green hydrogen imports,and Chinese green hydrogen is more competitive for green hydrogen exports and pathways using green ammonia and green methanol as carriers offer significant cost advantages.It proposes that the government should increase investment in the green hydrogen industry to expand production capacity,improve hydrogen infrastructure to promote industry chain collaboration,jointly establish international green hydrogen standards to monetize carbon reduction value,strengthen international cooperation on hydrogen resources to ensure supply chain security,and enhance international technological cooperation to boost industrial competitiveness.
周洲;付亚轩;隋朝霞;张丹;侯建国
中海石油气电集团有限责任公司中海石油气电集团有限责任公司中海石油气电集团有限责任公司中海石油气电集团有限责任公司中海石油气电集团有限责任公司
管理科学
绿氢产业链成本模型发展路径
green hydrogenindustrial chaincostsmodeldevelopment path
《国际石油经济》 2026 (4)
83-91,9
中海石油气电集团有限责任公司科研项目"绿色燃料的技术经济性与环境效益研究"(项目编号:QDKJZH-2025-07)
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