美俄欧长期能源博弈特点与趋势OACHSSCD
Characteristics and trends in the long-term energy rivalry among the U.S.,Russia,and Europe
2022年乌克兰危机爆发以来,美俄欧围绕能源开展了一系列高强度博弈,能源成为冲突各方争夺的重要资源,能源博弈也成为与军事行动同等重要的"平行战场".欧盟在其中最为积极,既希望通过制裁来遏制和影响俄罗斯,也希望借机推动自身能源体系建设.俄罗斯的主要目标是反制和自保,实现能源外贸重构.美国既限制了俄罗斯,又抢占了欧洲市场,在其中获益最大.美俄欧在博弈中强硬措施频出、创新手段丰富、涉及范围广泛、紧张大事不断,使得能源博弈充分演变为大国综合国力的全面较量,呈现出与此前完全不同的新面貌.其中诸多事件从理论角度深刻揭示了能源转型能否对冲能源安全风险、"能源武器"是否仍有效果、市场与政治的力量孰强孰弱,以及如何运用综合国力开展总体博弈等深层问题,在理念、政策、技术、行动4个方面为中国更好参与国际能源竞争与合作提供了重要启示.
Since the 2022 Ukraine crisis,the U.S.,Russia,and Europe have waged an intense energy contest and energy is the significant resource among them,elevating energy to a parallel battlefield alongside conventional warfare.The EU has been the most proactive,using sanctions to curb Russia while accelerating its own energy system development.Russia has focused on counteraction and self-preservation by restructuring its foreign energy trade.The U.S.has emerged as the biggest winner by constraining Russia while capturing a larger share of the European market.Marked by frequent tough measures,innovative tactics,broad reach,and escalating brinkmanship,this energy rivalry has evolved into a full-spectrum contest of comprehensive national power,presenting a fundamentally new landscape.Key events offer deep theoretical insights into whether energy transitions can hedge against security risks,the continued relevance of the"energy weapon",the market-politics tension,and how to wield national power in strategic competition.These lessons inform China's future participation in international energy competition and cooperation across such four dimensions as concepts,policies,technologies,and actions.
韩立群
中国现代国际关系研究院
管理科学
乌克兰危机能源博弈能源体系能源安全能源武器
the Ukraine crisisenergy geopoliticsenergy systemsenergy securityenergy weapon
《国际石油经济》 2026 (4)
1-13,13
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