宁夏生态系统碳汇时空变化及潜力诊断分区OA

Accurate quantification and analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks and their spatiotemporal characteristics are fundamental for optimizing regional ecological carbon sink patterns and promoting low-car-bon,sustainable development.Based on long-term remote sensing products,topographic data,and meteorological data,this study constructed an integrated research methodology combining sample plot inventory,remote sensing inversion,machine learning,and linear trend analysis to estimate the long-term carbon storage of terrestrial eco-systems in Ningxia,China.A multiperspective spatiotemporal analysis and diagnostic zoning of ecosystem car-bon sinks were conducted.The results revealed the following:(1)From 2001 to 2024,Ningxia's carbon storage showed a significant upward trend,with annual total carbon storage and average carbon storage increasing at rates of 256.86×104 t·a-1 and 0.49 t·hm-2·a-1,respectively.The total carbon storage increased by 6323.08×104 t,reaching 1.67×108 t in 2024.Guyuan City,with an annual carbon storage increase rate of 0.75 t·hm-2·a-1,emerged as the core carbon sink area in Ningxia.(2)Grassland and farmland were the primary contributors to Ningxia's eco-system carbon sinks from 2001 to 2024,with carbon storage increasing by 4732.87×104 t,accounting for 41.49%and 33.43%of the total contribution,respectively.Through two phases of ecological restoration(2000-2012 and 2012-2024),including the Grain for Green Program,grazing prohibition,and the Three-North Shelterbelt Proj-ect,the conversion among farmland,grassland,and forests increased carbon sinks by 1093.19×104 t,contributing 17.31%to the total increase.Optimizing land-use structure and enhancing vegetation coverage can effectively im-prove ecosystem carbon sink capacity.(3)From 2001 to 2024,78.7%of Ningxia's ecosystem carbon sinks exhib-ited significant increases,with all cities showing increases of over 66.3%,and Guyuan City reaching 96.0%.Ar-eas with decreases were mainly urbanized regions,accounting for only 3.4%.Areas with high variability(Cv≥0.3)covered 41.0%,predominantly distributed in the arid,semi-arid,and desertified regions of central and north-ern Ningxia,driven primarily by precipitation.Under future warm-wet trends,92.75%of Ningxia is projected to sustain increasing carbon storage,indicating its substantial carbon sink potential.The"high-high"clusters identi-fied by Moran's I index were concentrated in southern Ningxia,expanding from 18.7%in 2001 to 25.1%in 2024,marking these areas as high-priority zones for carbon sink enhancement.These findings provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management,land-use optimization,and the pursuit of"dual-carbon"goals in Ningxia.