人口老龄化、自动化技术与产业结构转型OACHSSCD

China is currently grappling with the dual challenges of profound demographic shifts and accelerated industrial structure transformation.How to address the labor supply shocks brought about by population aging while achieving industrial structure optimization and upgrading,thus,has become a focal point of common concern for both academia and policymakers.This study explores the effect of demographic changes on industrial structure adjustment and analyzes how technological progress influences industrial structure adjustment in the context of population aging.Empirical tests using provincial panel data from 2009 to 2023 reveal that population aging significantly promotes the development of the tertiary industry while exerting a significant negative impact on the development of the secondary industry,thereby driving industrial structure transformation.Compared with the central and western regions,the impact of population aging on industrial structure is more pronounced in the eastern coastal provinces.Mechanism analysis indicates that the effect of population aging on industrial structure transformation is mainly concentrated in provinces with faster growth in robot density.That is,population aging drives industrial structure transformation through the application of automation technology,highlighting the combined effect of demographic changes and technological progress.The study recommends strengthening policy support for technological innovation and industrial upgrading;optimizing the industrial structure layout to promote high-quality development of the service sector;enhancing regional policy coordination to promote balanced development;and facilitating orderly population mobility to mitigate the negative impacts of population aging on industrial structure.