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"十五五"时期我国劳动力市场的主要特征、趋势及政策讨论OACHSSCD

Main Characteristics,Trends,and Policy Discussions of China's Labor Market During the"15th Five-Year Plan"Period

中文摘要英文摘要

"十四五"以来,我国城镇调查失业率与自然失业率接近、宏观经济保持适度稳定增长,这是判断"十五五"时期就业总体稳定的基础."十五五"时期,我国劳动力供求的人口基础因素发生重大变化,16-29岁新成长的青年劳动力将进入高峰时期,外资就业占比呈下降趋势,产能利用率减弱,人工智能对所有行业和职业的就业影响广泛而深远,供需不匹配的结构性就业矛盾将是劳动力市场的中长期压力.把握"十五五"时期我国劳动力市场的主要特征趋势,从经济循环的过程,落实宏观政策一致性目标,把促进青年就业作为重中之重,加强技术向善、教育重塑、社保兜底的政策体系建设,促进高质量充分就业.

Since the"14th Five-Year Plan"period,China's urban surveyed unemployment rate has approached the natural unemployment rate,accompanied by moderate and stable macroeconomic growth,which forms the basis forjudging overall employment stability during the"15th Five-Year Plan"period.The demographic fundamentals of labor supply and demand in China will undergo significant changes during the"15th Five-Year Plan"period.The population of young adults aged 16-29 entering the labor force will peak,the proportion of employment in foreign-funded enterprises is on a downward trend,capacity utilization is weakening,AI's impact on employment is extensive and profound across all industries and occupations,and the structural employment contradiction stemming from supply-demand mismatches will represent a medium to long-term pressure on the labor market.To grasp the main characteristics and trends of China's labor market during the"15th Five-Year Plan"period,it is necessary to implement consistent macro-policy objectives throughout the economic circulation process,prioritize promoting youth employment,and strengthen the policy system construction centered on technology for good,education reshaping,and social security as a safety net,thereby promoting high-quality and full employment.

屈小博

中国社会科学院 人口与劳动经济研究所,北京 100006||中国社会科学院大学 应用经济学院,北京 102488||中国社会科学院 人力资源研究中心,北京 100006

管理科学

"十五五"劳动力市场人工智能高质量充分就业

"15th Five-Year Plan"labor marketartificial intelligencehigh-quality and full employment

《中国劳动关系学院学报》 2026 (2)

1-10,10

本文系中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所创新工程项目"中国式现代化进程中的人口高质量发展"(项目编号:2025RKS02)的阶段性研究成果.

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