"十五五"时期中国老龄化程度与中长期人口发展态势研究OACHSSCD
Population Aging in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period and Medium-to-Long-Term Demographic Trends
"十五五"时期(2026 年至2030 年)是建设中国特色社会主义的重要五年,也是中国应对人口老龄化趋势的关键五年.文章基于第七次人口普查数据,结合贝叶斯分层模型模拟的总和生育率预测序列,使用队列要素法与PADIS-INT 软件,对中国"十五五"时期至2050 年的老龄化程度与人口发展态势进行了预测.研究发现,"十五五"时期中国总人口将小幅负增长,人口老龄化程度将持续加深,新生人口和劳动人口均将呈现下降趋势,老年抚养比将历史性地超过少儿抚养比.文章丰富了中国人口预测领域的研究视角与方法,不仅为中国优化人口结构、应对老龄化挑战提供了新的理论依据,也为"十五五"时期各项政策制定提供了重要支持.
The 15th Five-Year Plan period(2026-2030)represents not only a crucial stage in advancing China's socialist modernization but also a pivotal window for addressing the accelerating trend of population aging.Drawing on data from the Seventh National Population Census and incorpora-ting total fertility rate projections generated through a Bayesian hierarchical model,this study employs the cohort-component method and the PADIS-INT system to forecast China's aging level and demographic trajectories during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and up to 2050.The results indicate that China's total population will continue to decline throughout the 15th Five-Year Plan period,accompanied by a deepening degree of population aging.Both the number of newborns and the size of the working-age population are expected to decrease,while the old-age dependency ratio is projected to surpass the child dependency ratio for the first time in history.This study enriches research perspectives and methodological approaches within China's demographic forecasting.It provides new theoretical foundations for optimizing the population structure and addressing the challenges of aging,and of-fers valuable evidence to support policy formulation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
朱紫陌;胡鹏;巴曙松
浙江大学 经济学院,浙江 杭州 310058中央财经大学 金融学院,北京 100081北京大学 汇丰商学院,广东 深圳 518055
管理科学
人口老龄化人口预测"十五五"规划队列要素法
population agingpopulation projectionthe 15th Five-Year PlanCohort-Component Method
《当代经济管理》 2026 (5)
72-85,14
国家社会科学基金一般项目"数字化条件下居民金融可得性分化效应及其包容性改进研究"(22BJL042)民政部部级项目"我国人口老龄化发展趋势及影响研究"(2024MZJ003).
评论