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面向省内电网企业代理购电的液体神经网络推理模型OA

Liquid Neural Network Based Inference Model for Agency Power Procurement of Intra-provincial Power Grid Enterprises

中文摘要英文摘要

省内电网企业在代理购电时将面临新能源出力与电力现货市场价格波动双重不确定性,传统量价预测模型在代理购电价格频繁波动场景下难以适用.为此,构建了基于液体神经网络的交易趋势推理模型.该模型在考虑代理购电多因素耦合特性的基础上,通过引入金融领域的十字过滤指标对现货交易趋势进行量化表征,并结合日前结算电量、结算价格、积温和供需比等特征数据,采用液体神经网络动态调节神经元状态与液体时间参数,实现对电力市场复杂时序模式的自适应学习.最后,采用河北某地区电力现货市场的量价数据进行验证,结果表明所提模型能够有效识别代理购电量价数据的趋势与振荡区间,并在趋势划分和拐点预测方面优于传统量价模型.

Intra-provincial power grid enterprises face dual uncertainties in agency power procurement due to fluctuations of renewable energy output and electricity spot market prices.Traditional price-volume prediction models are poorly suited for the highly volatile scenarios of agency power procurement.To address this issue,an inference model for trading trends based on a liquid neural network(LNN)is developed.This model considers the multi-factor coupling characteristics of agency power procurement and quantifies the spot trading trends using a vertical-horizontal filter indicator from financial domains.By incorporating feature data such as day-ahead settlement power volume,settlement power price,cumulative temperature,and supply-demand ratio,the LNN is adopted to dynamically adjust neuron states and liquid time constants,achieving the adaptive learning of complex temporal patterns in the electricity market.Finally,the verification is conducted by using the price-volume data from the electricity spot market in a region of Hebei Province,China.The results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively identify both the trend and oscillation intervals in agency power procurement data,outperforming conventional price-volume models in terms of trend segmentation and inflection point prediction.

李彬;李若松;孟子轩;张雨蒙;陈宋宋;周颖

华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市 102206华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市 102206华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市 102206华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市 102206中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市 100192中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市 100192

量价预测十字过滤指标代理购电电力现货市场液体神经网络不确定性趋势划分拐点预测

price-volume predictionvertical-horizontal filter indicatoragency power procurementelectricity spot marketliquid neural network(LNN)uncertaintytrend segmentationinflection point prediction

《电力系统自动化》 2026 (8)

196-205,10

国家电网公司科技项目:"省级电网企业代理购电交易策略与风险防控技术研究及应用"(5400-202313231A-1-1-ZN). This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China(No.5400-202313231A-1-1-ZN).

10.7500/AEPS20250624013

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