面向高维平衡域的时序-概率电力电量平衡量化评估方法OA

The large-scale integration of various emerging elements has led to new characteristics of the power and energy balance of new power systems as multi-directional interaction,probabilistic balance,and temporal coupling.How to achieve quantitative analysis of power and energy balance under the new situation has become an important issue.Based on the theory of the time-series-probabilistic power and energy balance,the quantitative evaluation method oriented to high-dimensional balance region is proposed,including new evaluation indicators such as balance probability,unbalanced value,and unbalanced risk.And a robust evaluation model with its algorithm based on the maximum inner approximation of the balance region is also proposed.Since the approximate region is the largest inner filled subset of the real balance region,the reliability and the calculation accuracy of the evaluation results is guaranteed.Due to the avoidance of numerous repeated simulation and complex integral operation,the computational efficiency is improved,and the requirement of practical engineering can be met.Case study results show the validity of the proposed method based on the 2050 planned power system of a region of China.