博科圣地恐怖袭击事件时空演进及影响因素分析OA

Based on the global terrorism database(GTD)data,we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of Boko Haram terrorist attacks from 2009 to 2020 using kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse methods,and employed ridge regression to identify influ-ence factors.The findings reveal distinct spatio-temporal characteristics.Temporally,the terrorist attacks demonstrate a triphasic developmental trajectory characterized by emergence,escalation,and factional divergence.Spatially,the attack patterns exhibit three expansion trends,such as radial dispersion from northeastern Nigeria nationwide,transnational diffusion into neighboring countries(Niger,Chad and Cameroon),formation of a northeast-southwest conflict axis centered around Maiduguri,the capital of Borno State.Key determinants influencing this spatio-temporal evolution include military counterterrorism operations,natural disasters,geographical proximity,and unemployment rates.