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人工智能技术应用与企业债务违约风险OA

The Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology and Corporate Debt Default Risk

中文摘要英文摘要

人工智能技术是催生企业新质生产力的强劲引擎,其数据分析和智能决策能力能否有效融入企业风险治理体系,进而防范化解债务违约风险,是数字经济时代亟待检验的重要命题.本研究以2016-2023年我国A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,构建人工智能技术应用水平度量指标,实证检验其对企业债务违约风险的影响及作用机制.研究发现,企业人工智能技术应用水平能显著降低企业债务违约风险,且该结论在工具变量法、倾向得分匹配、更换回归模型等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.机制分析显示,人工智能技术通过两条路径抑制债务违约风险:一是借助大数据分析精准识别投资机会与风险,抑制非效率投资以缓解代理问题与现金流压力;二是通过强化环境感知与资源重构能力,提升企业动态能力以增强风险应对韧性.异质性分析进一步发现,人工智能技术的风险抑制效应在管理层能力较弱、具有海外背景或政治关联、所处地区营商环境较差及知识产权保护力度较弱的企业中更为显著,表明数字技术可有效弥补制度短板与治理缺陷.本研究从风险治理视角拓展了人工智能技术经济后果的研究边界,揭示了数字技术影响企业债务违约风险的双路径机制,为企业数字化转型战略制定、政府差异化政策设计提供了针对性的决策参考.

As a powerful engine that fosters new productive forces in enterprises,whether artificial intelligence's data analysis and intelligent decision-making capabilities can be effectively embedded into the enterprise risk governance system to prevent and resolve debt default risks has become an important proposition to be urgently tested in the era of the digital economy.Using a sample of Chinese A-share non-financial listed firms from 2016 to 2023,this study measures AI application and empirically examines its impact on debt default risk and relevant mechanism.The results show that AI application significantly lowers corporate debt default risk,and the finding remains robust to instrumental variable estimation,propensity score matching,and alternative model specifications.Mechanism analysis indicates that AI technology primarily exerts its influence through two pathways:first,accurately identifying investment opportunities and risks via big data analysis,thereby restraining inefficient investment to alleviate agency problems and cash flow pressure;second,enhancing enterprises'dynamic capabilities to strengthen risk response resilience by reinforcing environmental perception and resource reconfiguration.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the risk-reducing effect is stronger among firms with weaker managerial ability,those with executives having overseas or political ties,and those in regions with poorer business environments and intellectual property protection.This study expands the research boundary of the economic consequences of AI technology from the perspective of risk governance,reveals the dual-path mechanism through which digital technology affects corporate debt risk,and provides targeted decision-making references for enterprises'digital transformation strategies and governments'differentiated policy design.

邵亚晖;盛明泉

安徽财经大学会计学院,安徽 蚌埠 233030安徽财经大学会计学院,安徽 蚌埠 233030

管理科学

企业债务违约风险人工智能技术新质生产力

corporate debt default riskartificial intelligence technologyNew Quality Productive Forces

《重庆科技大学学报(社会科学版)》 2026 (2)

21-37,17

安徽省高校科研计划重大项目"人才配置失衡矫正、创新突破与新质生产力形成和发展"(2024AH040265).

10.19406/j.issn.2097-4523.2026.02.002

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