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基于运营日志数据的CT扫描工作流程优化与需求预测研究OA

Optimization of CT scanning workflow and demand forecasting based on operational log data

中文摘要英文摘要

目的 计算机断层扫描(computed tomography,CT)是现代医学诊断的核心工具,但其设备昂贵且运营流程复杂,普遍存在效率低下和患者等待时间长等问题.研究旨在基于医疗物联网(internet of medical things,IoMT)获取的运营日志数据,构建一套量化工作流程效率的评价体系,通过分析影响检查效率的关键因素,对未来需求进行精准预测,为放射科精细化管理、差异化排班及医疗资源优化提供科学的决策依据.方法 本研究对5台CT设备在3个月内的运营日志数据进行了回顾性分析.首先基于数据驱动的方法论,提取并清洗出了包括设备利用率、扫描生产率、平均检查周转时间及平均患者间隔时间(turnaround time,TAT)等关键绩效指标(key performance indicators,KPIs)体系.然后,按检查类型对KPIs进行差异化对比,以识别影响设备生产效率的主要因素.最后,利用5月和6月的每日扫描量数据作为训练集,分别构建了季节性自回归积分移动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型和随机森林(random forest)回归模型,对7月的每日扫描量进行预测.通过均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)、决定系数(R²)和方向准确性(directional accuracy)4个指标全面评估了模型性能.结果 研究共纳入5台设备共74 159次扫描记录.KPI分析显示,设备平均检查时间1.47 min±0.48 min,平均检查周转时间为7.76 min±3.6 min,设备平均利用率85.76%±16%.分层次分析量化了检查协议复杂度对效率的显著影响,数据表明,复合部位扫描的平均TAT显著高于单一部位,增强扫描的TAT约为平扫的1.5倍.在需求预测方面,随机森林模型所有评价指标优于SARIMA模型约15%,表明机器学习模型能更有效捕捉医院工作流中的非线性特性.结论 研究基于CT设备运营日志数据构建的KPI体系能够有效量化工作流程,明确了复杂检查是限制CT设备运行效率的关键因素.相对于传统的时间序列模型,研究证明了随机森林模型在预测短期扫描需求方面具有高准确性和应用潜力.研究结果表明,医疗机构可通过实施差异化预约排班策略和应用机器学习预测模型,动态调配技师与耗材,缩短患者等待时间,从而显著提升放射科的整体运营效率和医疗服务质量.

Objective Computed tomography(CT)is a cornerstone of modern medical diagnostics;however,the conflict between high equipment costs and complex operational workflows often leads to inefficiencies and prolonged patient waiting times.This study aims to construct a quantitative evaluation system for workflow efficiency based on operational log data obtained from the internet of medical things(IoMT).By analyzing key factors affecting examination efficiency and accurately predicting future demand,this study seeks to provide a scientific basis for decision-making regarding refined management,differentiated scheduling,and the optimization of medical resources in radiology departments.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on operational log data from five CT scanners over a three-month period.First,utilizing a data-driven methodology,a system of key performance indicators(KPIs)was extracted and cleaned,including equipment utilization rate,scanning productivity,mean examination turnaround time(TAT),and mean inter-patient interval time.Subsequently,a comparative analysis of KPIs stratified by examination type was performed to identify primary factors influencing equipment productivity.Finally,using daily scan volume data from May and June as a training set,seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)and random forest regression models were developed to forecast daily scan volumes for July.Model performance was comprehensively evaluated using root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),coefficient of determination(R2),and directional accuracy.Results The study included over 74 159 scan records from the five devices.KPI analysis revealed a mean examination time of 1.47 min±0.48 min,a mean examination TAT of 7.76 min±3.6 min,and an average equipment utilization rate of 85.76%±16%.Stratified analysis quantified the significant impact of examination protocol complexity on efficiency;data indicated that the mean TAT for multi-site combined scans was significantly higher than that for single-site scans,and the TAT for contrast-enhanced scans was approximately 1.5 times that of non-contrast scans.Regarding demand forecasting,the random forest model outperformed the SARIMA model by approximately 15%across all evaluation metrics,demonstrating that machine learning models more effectively capture the non-linear characteristics of hospital workflows.Conclusions The KPI system constructed based on CT operational log data effectively quantifies the workflow and identifies complex examinations as the key factor constraining CT operational efficiency.Compared to traditional time-series models,this study demonstrates the high accuracy and potential application of the random forest model in forecasting short-term scanning demand.The findings suggest that healthcare institutions can significantly enhance the overall operational efficiency and service quality of radiology departments by implementing differentiated appointment scheduling strategies and applying machine learning predictive models to dynamically allocate technicians and consumables,thereby reducing patient waiting times.

奉楠馨;谢思源;刘麒麟

四川大学华西医院医学工程科(成都 610041)四川大学华西医院医学工程科(成都 610041)四川大学华西医院医学工程科(成都 610041)

医药卫生

计算机断层扫描工作流程优化需求预测运营效率

computed tomography scanningworkflow optimizationdemand forecastingoperational efficiency

《北京生物医学工程》 2026 (2)

170-176,7

国家重点研发计划(2023YFC2414600、2023YFC2414602)资助

10.3969/j.issn.1002-3208.2026.02.008

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