Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chainOA
The global transition to low-carbon technologies hinges on secure supplies of critical minerals like cobalt,yet interconnected supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and frequent external disruptions.Existing risk assessments often treat commodities in isolation,overlooking the upstream-downstream dependencies that amplify cascading failures.Here we show systemic risks in global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019 across 230 countries and regions by integrating trade-linked material flow analysis with a multilayer shock propagation model.Our results reveal that disruptions propagate through alternating horizontal-vertical and direct-indirect pathways,with risk concentrating at the mining stage but accumulating predominantly in refining-manufacturing bridges.These cascades yield abrupt nonlinear failures and an avalanche network four times denser than the underlying physical supply chain.Nations with low systemic fragility but high exposure rate-such as Indonesia,South Africa,and Mexico-are particularly susceptible to common random disruptions and lack resilience or effective response.Over the past two decades,global systemic risks have followed a volatile but upward trend.These findings highlight that national mitigation strategies are necessary but insufficient;achieving resilience requires stage-aware,system-level coordination and multilateral cooperation.
Xin Ouyang;Litao Liu;Qiance Liu;Wu Chen;Chao Wang;Xun Pang;Canfei He;Gang Liu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100101,China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,100871,ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100101,China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,100871,ChinaSDU Life Cycle Engineering,Department of Green Technology,University of Southern Denmark,Odense,5220,DenmarkCollege of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing,100124,ChinaSchool of International Studies,Peking University,Beijing,100871,ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,100871,ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China
管理科学
CobaltMaterial flow analysisSupply chainMultilayer networkShock propagation
《Environmental Science and Ecotechnology》 2026 (1)
P.35-46,12
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72334001,42530502,and 52270191)the Humanities and Social Sciences Fund of the Ministry of Education of China(23JZD018).
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