1990-2021年中国女性盆腔器官脱垂疾病负担分析及趋势预测OA

Objective To analyze changes in the disease burden of pelvic organ prolapse(POP)among women in China from 1990 to 2021,and to project its trend from 2022 to 2050,so as to provide evidence for POP prevention and control.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021,we employed segmented linear regression models,age-period-cohort models,and bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)models for analysis and projection.Results In 2021,the number of prevalent,incident,and mortality cases of POP in China were 18,373,454.61(95％UI 15 160 906.47 to 21 882 626.23),2 180 815.93(95％UI 1 782 064.46 to 2 594,003.65),and 28(95％UI 6.91 to 40.64),respectively.The disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)amounted to 56 703.36 person-years(95％UI 27545.04 to 107,644.14).The peaks for prevalence,incidence,mortality,and DALYs occurred in the age groups of 55-59 years,50-54 years,85-89 years,and 55-59 years,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized prevalence,incidence,and DALY rates all showed a declining trend.However,driven by population aging,the absolute numbers of prevalent and incident cases as well as DALYs exhibited an upward trend.Further analysis revealed that age,period,and birth cohort effects all influenced both the incidence and DALYs.Projections indicate that by 2050,while the age-standardized rates across all age groups are expected to continue declining universally,the absolute burden will demonstrate age-specific divergence:a gradual decrease in populations under 60 years old,an initial increase followed by a decrease in the 60-69 age group,and a persistent rise in populations aged 70 and above.Conclusions China has made progress in POP prevention and control,yet the disease burden remains significant among the elderly.With the ongoing population aging,the disease burden in populations aged 60 and above is expected to further increase.