基于聚类分析的平陆运河开通对广西铁路货运影响研究OA

To explore the impact mechanism of the Pinglu Canal opening on railway freight transport in Guangxi and construct a scientific classification system for urban impact patterns,this paper calculated the modal split rates of three cargo types across four transport routes for 10 key cities in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region based on an improved Influ-Logit modal split model and thereby constructed a multi-dimensional indicator system;features were screened based on grey relational analysis and random forest feature importance assessment,and the cities were classified by combining principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction and cluster analysis;sensitivity experiments were designed to validate the robustness of the clustering results.The research results show that the opening of the Pinglu Canal leads to a declining trend in railway transport modal split rates,but spatial heterogeneity exists in the degree of impact across different cities.The industrial structure is the core factor determining railway transport resilience,and the change in the Pinglu Canal modal split rate for bulk cargo has the highest feature importance.The clustering results indicate that cities in Guangxi can be divided into two major categories.Baise City belongs to Category 1,which is characterized by a high railway transport modal split rate and a small substitution effect from the Pinglu Canal;the other nine cities belong to Category 2,which can be subdivided into four subcategories,among which central cities such as Nanning,Guigang,and Chongzuo face the greatest competitive pressure in railway transport due to their proximity to Beibu Gulf ports.This paper reveals that industrial structure,geographical location,and existing transport dependency are the key factors affecting railway freight transport resilience,which provides a scientific basis for the railway departments to formulate differentiated development strategies.