基于Grey-DEMATEL-AISM的城市轨道交通PPP项目运营期绩效评价研究OA
Performance Evaluation of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project during Operation Period Based on Grey-DEMATEL-AISM
我国城市轨道交通PPP项目大多已完成建设期到运营期的转变,强调以运营为核心、以绩效为导向,促进企业可持续性发展.然而现有研究成果大多以构建评价指标体系为重点,缺乏对影响企业绩效的关键影响因素及其作用机理的研究.通过项目实践,运用Grey-DEMATEL模型以及熵权法,识别出影响城市轨道交通PPP项目的15个重要因素,进行因果分析、重要程度分析以及组合权重计算;并引入博弈对抗思想通过AISM模型对影响因素进行抽取分层,构建多层递阶的对抗解释结构模型,探究因素间的作用路径与关联性并可视化表达;研究表明,项目运营效益、财政绩效风险评价、年度客流增长率、运营管理能力、月度监控报表报送情况是影响企业绩效结果最为突出和关键的因素,以此帮助企业用更少的精力有针对性地加以改进,并为企业整改提出相应的对策建议.
At present,most of the urban rail transit PPP projects in China have completed the transformation from the construction period to the operation period.More emphasis is placed on operation as the core and performance as the guidance to promote the sustainable development of enterprises.However,most of the existing research results focus on the construction of evaluation index system,with a lack of studies on the key influencing factors and the mechanism of enterprise performance.Through project practice,the Grey-DEMATEL model and entropy weight method were employed to identify 15 important factors affecting urban rail transit PPP projects.The causal analysis,importance analysis and combination weight calculation were carried out.The game confrontation idea was also introduced to extract and stratify the influencing factors through the AISM model.A multi-level hierarchical confrontation interpretation structure model was constructed to explore and visualize the action path and correlation between factors.The research shows that project operation benefit,financial performance risk evaluation,annual passenger flow growth rate,operation management ability and monthly monitoring report submission are the most prominent and key factors affecting enterprise performance results,so as to help enterprises improve with less effort and propose corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for enterprise rectification.
何静;李启航;李明辉;王冯媛
昆明理工大学 交通工程学院,云南 昆明 650500昆明理工大学 交通工程学院,云南 昆明 650500中铁八局集团有限公司 昆明铁路建设有限公司,云南 昆明 650200昆明理工大学 交通工程学院,云南 昆明 650500
交通工程
绩效评价城市轨道交通关键影响因素DEMATELAISM
Performance EvaluationUrban Rail TransitKey Influencing FactorDEMATELAISM
《铁道运输与经济》 2026 (4)
106-114,9
国家自然科学基金项目(62362044)
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