"25.7"北京致灾性暴雨的精细化特征及大尺度环流异常OA
Refined characteristics and large-scale anomalous circulations associated with the"25.7"extreme rainstorm in Beijing
2025 年 7 月下旬,北京遭遇致灾性极端持续性暴雨过程(简称"25.7"暴雨),造成了严重的经济损失与人员伤亡.本文基于 1961-2025 年北京地区国家站与区域气象站的高分辨率降水资料,系统分析了"25.7"暴雨过程的极端性特征,并探讨了其形成的大尺度环流背景与水汽输送机制.研究表明,此次事件发生于北京夏季降水异常偏多、雨季提前的气候背景下,且 2010 年后区域强降水事件呈增强趋势.过程期间,北京全市平均降水量达 211.1 mm,密云区出现 1961 年以来最强单站降雨(366.6 mm),局地最大累计雨量高达 574.3 mm(密云郎房峪站).尤为突出的是,全市降水持续时间长达 147 h,超过历史极端事件"63.8"暴雨,创下观测纪录;密云站强降水持续时间约106 h,其中 42 h 雨强超过 20 mm/h.与历史典型事件相比,"25.7"暴雨在平均雨量、持续时间和局地极值等方面均位居前列.大气环流分析表明,2025 年夏季欧亚中高纬500 hPa 位势高度距平场呈现"负-正-负"的遥相关波列,其能量频散与持续加强为极端降水提供了大尺度背景.同期,西北太平洋副热带高压异常偏强、偏北,其西段脊线在7 月下旬稳定维持在 35°N以北,与东亚夏季风的显著增强相配合,建立了向华北地区的水汽输送通道.在"25.7"暴雨发生期间,500 hPa 环流场上贝加尔湖低槽深厚,京津冀处于槽前;副高北界异常北推至 40°N附近,其与北侧低压系统之间形成强盛的偏东南风急流.同时,西北太平洋上台风"范斯高"与"竹节草"的活动,进一步强化并维持了沿东南路径向北京地区长时间、高强度输送水汽的机制,最终导致了此次破纪录的极端持续性暴雨事件.
In late July 2025,Beijing experienced a prolonged and disastrous rainstorm event(hereafter referred to as the"25.7"event),which caused severe economic losses and casualties.Using high-resolution precipitation observations from national and regional meteorological stations in Beijing during 1961-2025,this study examines the refined characteristics of this extreme rainfall event and investigates the associated large-scale anom-alous circulation background and moisture transport mechanisms.The results show that the"25.7"event occurred against a background of anomalously wet summer conditions and an earlier-than-normal onset of the rainy season in Beijing,with a marked increase in regional heavy precipitation events since 2010.During the event,the city-wide mean accumulated precipitation reached 211.1 mm.The Miyun station recorded its highest rainfall since 1961(366.6 mm),while a local maximum of 574.3 mm was observed at the Langfangyu station.Notably,the duration of continuous precipitation over Beijing reached 147 h,exceeding the historical record set during the"63.8"event in 1963.At the Miyun station,heavy rainfall persisted for approximately 106 h,with rainfall inten-sity exceeding 20 mm·h-1 for 42 h.Compared with other major rainstorm events since 2010,the"25.7"event ranks among the most extreme in terms of mean rainfall amount,duration and local maxima.Circulation analyses reveal that during the summer of 2025,the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia exhibited a pronounced"negative-positive-negative"teleconnection wave train,whose energy disper-sion and persistent intensification provided a favorable large-scale background for extreme precipitation.Concur-rently,the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)was stronger and positioned farther north than climatology,with its western ridge line remaining north of 35°N in late July.Together with a significantly enhanced East Asian summer monsoon,these conditions established an efficient moisture transport pathway toward northern China.During the"25.7"event,a deep trough was located near Lake Baikal at 500 hPa level,placing the Beijing-Tian-jin-Hebei region ahead of the trough.The northern boundary of the WPSH extended anomalously to approximately 40°N,and a strong southeasterly low-level jet developed between the WPSH and the low-pressure system to its north.In addition,Typhoons Francisco and Co-may further intensified and sustained the moisture transport along the southeastern pathway toward Beijing.The combined effects of these circulation features ultimately led to this record-breaking,long-lasting,and extreme rainfall event.
王子佳;高辉;董颜
河海大学 水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210044||国家气候中心 气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室/中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081北京市气象服务中心,北京 100089
"25.7"北京暴雨西太平洋副热带高压东亚-太平洋遥相关型台风"范斯高"台风"竹节草"
Beijing"25.7"rainstormwestern Pacific subtropical highEast Asia-Pacific(EAP)teleconnection patternTyphoon FranciscoTyphoon Co-may
《大气科学学报》 2026 (2)
217-227,11
中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(24NLTSZ010)中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2026J004)
评论