基于XGBoost-SVR组合模型的气象能见度预测OA
Research on meteorological visibility prediction based on XGBoost-SVR combined model:a case study of Beijing
随着城市化进程加速及全球气候变化加剧,大气污染与复杂气象条件耦合作用下的能见度精准预测成为环境治理的关键技术.为提高动态城市气象能见度预测精度,本文以北京市为实证对象,筛选日平均温度、日湿度、日风速、日气压等10 项关键气象参数,通过堆叠泛化法、动态加权融合法与残差学习法3 种组合方式,建立XGBoost-SVR机器学习组合预测模型,对3 种组合模型的预测结果进行评估,并与单一机器学习算法模型以及组合算法模型的预测结果进行对比.研究结果表明,基于堆叠泛化法的XGBoost-SVR组合模型预测精度最高,其准确率达到84.02%,较次优模型提高了3.70%,且XGBoost-SVR组合模型明显优于单一机器学习算法模型与组合算法模型.
With the acceleration of urbanization and the intensification of global climate change,accurate visibility prediction under the coupling of atmospheric pollution and complex meteorological conditions has become a key technical challenge for environmental management.In order to improve the accuracy of dy-namic urban meteorological visibility prediction,this study takes Beijing as an empirical object,screens 10 key meteorological parameters such as daily average temperature,daily humidity,daily wind speed,sea level pressure,and establishes a combined XGBoost-SVR machine learning prediction model by the stacked generalization method,the dynamic weighted fusion method,and the residual learning method,respectively.The prediction results of these three combined models are systematically evaluated and com-pared with the single machine learning model and among the combined models.The results show that the XGBoost-SVR combined model based on stacked generalization method achieves the highest prediction accuracy,with an accuracy of 84.02%,which is3.70%higher than the second best model.Additional-ly,the XGBoost-SVR combined model significantly outperforms the single machine learning model and other combined model algorithms.
杜厚宇
泰山学院 信息科学技术学院,山东 泰安 271000
信息技术与安全科学
气象能见度组合模型城市微气候机器学习
meteorological visibilitycombined modelurban microclimatemachine learning
《山东理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (4)
43-49,7
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