1990-2021年全球皮肤及皮下组织疾病负担的时间变化趋势及流行病学特征OA

Objective In this study,we aimed to comprehensively assess the burden of 17 common skin diseases(SSDs)over the past three decades and project future trends to guide healthcare planning and resource allocation.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Dis-ease Study,we employed Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling to estimate disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for each of the SSDs from 1990 to 2021,at global,regional,and national levels.We also conducted projections to 2036.All estimates were accompanied by 95％uncertainty inter-vals(UIs).Results Between 1990 and 2021,global DALYs due to SSDs increased from 30.02 million(95％UI:20.40 million-42.12 million)to 44.84 million(95％UI:30.29 million-62.97 million),reflecting a 49.37％rise.Projections indicated an additional 16.60％increase by 2036.In particular,inflammatory skin diseases represented the largest share of the burden(49.95％),followed by infectious skin diseases(33.93％)and skin tumors(6.45％).Among specific diseases,atopic dermatitis ranked highest in DALYs,followed by scabies,acne vulgaris,and viral skin diseases.From an economic perspective,high-income regions bore a higher burden from inflammatory and tumorous conditions,whereas infectious skin diseases were concentrated in low-income settings.The five countries with the highest total DALYs were China(7.99 million),India(7.02 million),the United States(2.61 million),Indonesia(1.75 million),and Brazil(1.56 million).Furthermore,the burden of these SSDs exhibited significant gender and age pref-erences.Males experienced a higher burden of cellulitis,malignant melanoma,and non-melanoma skin cancer,while females were more affected by alopecia areata,acne vulgaris,atopic dermati-tis,pruritus,and urticaria.Most SSDs showed age-specific patterns,with the exception of sebor-rheic dermatitis and pruritus.Conclusions The burden of SSDs is significant and is projected to continue rising in the future,with marked heterogeneity across nations and regions.Factors such as geographic location,economic conditions,hygiene status,age,and gender influence the bur-den of SSDs.