碳中和目标下中国完全可再生能源电力系统建模研究OA

Advancing the low-carbon transition of the power system is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target by 2060.However,existing studies mostly focus on gradually increasing the share of renewable energy,with limited exploration on how to completely eliminate fossil fuels and achieve the feasibility of a fully renewable power system.This study,based on the Global Energy System Model(GENeSYS-MOD)framework,combines the characteristics of China's provincial power systems to construct an integrated power system model,assessing pathways to realize a fully renewable power system under various technology combinations,policy backgrounds,and economic conditions.The results show that by 2050,the total installed capacity of China's power system will reach 10,000 GW,with wind and solar power accounting for more than two-thirds of the generation,while hydropower and biomass provide stable supplementary support.Although achieving a fully renewable power system requires significant additional investment in renewable generation,long-term operational costs show economic viability with technological advancements and the development of energy storage systems.Through optimizing power transmission and storage technologies,a fully renewable power system can operate stably and efficiently,providing a feasible pathway for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.