考虑"双碳"目标影响的工业负荷演化趋势分析方法OA

In the process of implementing the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,accurately analyzing the evolution trend of industrial load serves as a crucial foundation for developing energy transformation strategy.To this end,a method considering the impact of the dual carbon goals is proposed to analyze the evolution trend of industrial load.The main dual carbon policies in China were sorted out and their underlying mechanisms affecting the evolution trend of industrial load were analyzed.The analytic hierarchy process is used to quantify the impact of different dual carbon factors and to screen out the key factors that dominate the trend of industrial load evolution.A combined model based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)and system dynamics(SD)is established to analyze the evolution trend of industrial loads,taking into account the impact of the dual carbon goals and the periodic temporal characteristics of industrial load sequences.Taking the data of the steel industry in a province as an example,the evolution trends of electricity load and carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed,verifying the effectiveness of the proposed SARIMA-SD combined model.The case study results indicate that from 2024 to 2060,industrial load and carbon emissions are expected to exhibit a general downward trend due to the implementation of dual carbon policies.However,achieving the goal of carbon neutrality still necessitates concerted efforts in employing technologies such as carbon capture and storage.