中国油茶生产布局的时空演变特征及驱动因素研究OACHSSCD

⑴ Background——The production layout of Camellia oleifera is closely related to regional resource endow-ments,ecological conditions,and socio-economic development.In recent years,the comparative advantages and spatial distribution of major Camellia oleifera producing areas in China have undergone notable changes.Howev-er,existing studies have paid limited attention to the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and spatial spillover effects of Camellia oleifera production layout at the provincial level,particularly from the perspective of compre-hensive comparative advantage. ⑵ Methods——Based on panel data from 15 major Camellia oleifera producing provinces in China during 2010-2022,this study constructs a comprehensive comparative advantage index to measure the relative produc-tion advantages of different regions.Exploratory spatial data analysis is then employed to examine the spatial de-pendence and agglomeration characteristics of Camellia oleifera production.Furthermore,spatial econometric models are used to identify the driving factors and spatial spillover effects influencing the production layout of Ca-mellia oleifera.The data are mainly obtained from the China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbooks,pro-vincial statistical yearbooks,and related official sources. ⑶ Results——The results show that,first,the comprehensive comparative advantage index of Camellia oleifera production exhibits an overall downward trend,with the average value decreasing from 0.98 to 0.88 dur-ing the study period,while the interregional distribution pattern of comparative advantages remains relatively sta-ble and core producing areas continue to maintain clear advantages.Second,the comprehensive comparative ad-vantage of Camellia oleifera production demonstrates a strong positive spatial correlation,with the intensity of spatial dependence displaying an"N"-shaped fluctuation trend.The spatial agglomeration pattern is dominated by high-high and low-low clusters and shows strong rigidity and stability,which can be attributed to the combined effects of ecological suitability constraints and path dependence arising from the long investment cycle and high replacement costs of perennial woody crops.Third,the number of Camellia oleifera practitioners and per capita GDP significantly promote the comprehensive comparative advantage of Camellia oleifera production,whereas disaster-affected agricultural areas and urbanization rate exert significant inhibitory effects.In addition,neighbor-ing regions'practitioner scale,forestry industry scale,transportation accessibility,per capita GDP,and urbani-zation level exhibit pronounced spatial spillover effects,while both the direct and indirect effects of total mechan-ical power are not significant. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First,ensuring the stable supply of the Camellia oleifera industry requires differentiated regional strategies to optimize the spatial layout of production,with core producing areas focusing on quality improvement,emerging areas undertaking orderly expansion and technology diffusion,and marginal areas emphasizing ecological suitability and production stability.Second,it is necessary to break through key production bottlenecks by strengthening factor support,particularly through enhancing professional human capital and increasing technological input,so as to address fragmented management and insufficient mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas.Third,improving the overall industrial ecosystem is essential for mitigating internal risks and spatial inhibitory effects,including strengthening risk prevention along the industrial chain,improving transportation and logistics conditions,and promoting better coordination between urbanization and Camellia oleifera industry development.Together,these measures provide an important foundation for promo-ting the sustainable and high-quality development of the Camellia oleifera industry.