基于模糊TOPSIS和云模型的城镇供水管道安全风险评估OA

[Objective]Urban water supply pipelines are critical components of municipal lifeline infrastructure.Pipeline failures not only jeopardize water supply safety but may also cause significant water resource losses and substantial economic damages.Implementing scientifically robust risk assessment method for comprehensive safety evaluation has become increasingly essential,serving as a vital measure to ensure the secure operation of water supply systems.[Methods]Based on pipeline operational characteristics and risk management theory,a multidimensional risk assessment system was established,incorporating structural attributes,operational status,external environment,and service attributes.The structural entropy weight method was employed to determine indicator weights,while the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)algorithm was applied to normalize and dynamically rank risk indices.Quantitative risk levels and key influencing factors were identified by mapping qualitative risk descriptions to cloud droplet distributions using the three-dimensional parameters(expectation,entropy,and hyper-entropy)of the cloud model.[Results]A case study demonstrated the method's effectiveness,with the test pipeline's risk assessment value(cloud model expectation value)of 3.962,classified as low-risk.Analysis of secondary indicator risk cloud diagrams identified structural attributes as the primary risk source,particularly highlighting corrosion and joint degradation as critical concerns requiring prioritized attention.[Conclusion]This paper proposes a risk assessment method that integrates the advantages of fuzzy mathematics and cloud modeling technologies,which effectively evaluates the risk status of water supply pipelines.The assessment result can provide valuable references and guidance for pipelines safety management.