渝西深层页岩气井基于早期生产数据预测EUR方法研究OA

To address the challenge of early Estimated Ultimate Recovery(EUR)prediction for deep shale gas wells in Western Chongqing,this study proposes a research framework of"calibration first,then correlation".First,a comparative analysis of various EUR prediction methods reveals that the analytical solution method,which balances mechanistic rationality and operational feasibility,is well-suited as the calibration approach.Based on over three years of production data from 32 deep shale gas wells,the square-root-of-time plot and composite linear flow plot embedded in Harmony software were employed to identify flow regimes and invert fracture parameters.Subsequently,a Stimulated Reservoir Volume(SRV)analytical model was established for EUR prediction,yielding a prediction error of merely 3.6%relative to actual production data.On this basis,readily available early-stage parameters—including initial formation pressure,wellhead casing pressure,and daily production—were selected as key variables,and an empirical formula for EUR prediction was developed via multiple linear regression.This formula enables EUR prediction as early as the third month after well commissioning,with a prediction error of only 13.3%.It facilitates rapid evaluation of gas well potential and is particularly applicable to deep shale gas wells in Western Chongqing,where frequent adjustments to production regimes are common in the early operational stage.This research provides a good support for on-site development decision-making and enhances the development efficiency of deep shale gas resources.