Climate change projections in Central Asia based on the CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ high-resolution simulationsOA
Climate change projections in Central Asia based on the CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ high-resolution simulations
本文基于CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ中的多区域气候模式(RCMs)对中亚未来气候变化进行预估分析.结果表明,所有RCM均能再现温度和降水的主要气候态分布及极端事件,其中REMO在温度相关指标模拟方面表现更好,而Alaro-0在降水相关指标方面更具优势,且多模式集合平均(MME)结果优于单个RCM.在RCP2.6和RCP8.5排放情景下,除日较差外,中亚地区的温度相关指标均呈现出一致的上升趋势,而年均降水变化的空间分布也较为相似,高纬度地区增幅最为显著.此外,在RCP8.5情景下,连续干燥日数预计将略有增加,而在RCP2.6情景下则略有减少.
Yanjin Mao;Ping Li;Xianchun Chen;Libin Huang;Xiaorui Niu
Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,China||Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards,Wuhan,China
中亚CORDEX-CA-Ⅱ区域气候模式气候预估
Central AsiaCORDEX-CA-ⅡRCMsClimate projections
《大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）》 2026 (2)
28-34,7
This study was jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant num-ber 2019QZKK0103],the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294],and the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303].
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