Exploring typhoon prediction and convective bursts through integration of a numerical model after vortex initialization with AI weather forecastingOA
Exploring typhoon prediction and convective bursts through integration of a numerical model after vortex initialization with AI weather forecasting
2024年强台风贝碧嘉近岸爆发快速增强,预报极具挑战.将数值预报和AI模型相结合,并融入涡旋初始化循环同化预报技术,以及动态权重释用预报技术等,可在不同程度上提升台风路径和强度预报.比如,72h路径预报偏差较数值模式降低25％,强度偏差较AI预报降低56％.基于预报分析,发现台风近岸爆发快速增强,与内核对流爆发,次级环流增强促进主环流发展,边界层高CAPE,深对流潜热加热持续供能,内核惯性稳定度增加防止高能大气外逸等有关.
Jinfeng Huang;Shuai Yang;Yuanfa Gong
School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu,China||State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu,China
涡旋初始化对流爆发台风
Vortex initializationConvective burstsTyphoon
《大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）》 2026 (2)
1-7,7
The authors were supported by the Strategic Priority Research Pro-gram of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0760300),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42175010 and 41875079).We thank for the technical support of the National Large Scientific and Technological Infrastructure"Earth System Numer-ical Simulation Facility"(https://cstr.cn/31134.02.EL).
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