有机肥价格补贴的"补贴锁定"与"亲富"效应OACHSSCD

Most evaluations of policies that encourage substituting organic for chemical fertilizer emphasize environmental outcomes,with much less attention to fiscal costs and equity,yielding an imbalanced assessment.Using a benefit-incidence(subsidy-incidence)curve together with a PSM-DID design,this study examines the distributional effects of organic-fertilizer price subsidies.The results show:(1)the policy generates a pronounced"subsidy lock-in"effect:Households in the top 30%of initial commercial organic fertilizer application exhibit such rigid demand that the subsidies are largely converted into excess rents without substantially increasing organic fertilizer application,implying an efficiency loss in the allocation of fiscal resources.(2)The subsidy distribution exhibits a"pro-rich"allocation:Households in the top decile of income receive 25.78%of total subsidies versus 7.02%for the bottom decile,revealing a vertical-equity gap.(3)The income-enhancing effects demonstrate heterogeneity:the subsidies significantly increase non-agricultural income,while promotion of agricultural income is mainly concentrated among households with lower initial organic fertilizer input.This suggests that the policy is more effective in triggering production improvements among low-endowment households and aligns with the process of labor transfer to non-agricultural sectors.Accordingly,three policy optimization recommendations are proposed:(1)introducing a subsidy phase-out for high-input households;(2)providing a"subsidy+training"package for low-input households;and(3)improving quality standards and premium pricing mechanisms.